Study comparing IA, IL shows stay-at-home order could have prevented COVID-19 cases
A new University of Iowa study found that issuing a stay-at-home order may have prevented 30% of COVID-19 cases per month.
The study compares real-time data from bordering counties in Iowa and in Illinois where a stay-at-home order was issued.
Iowa is one of five states that didn't order a stay-at-home order, but instead did incremental closings. Illinois started a blanket stay-at-home order on March 21.
"This study points to an added effect of strict social distancing measures," said Dr. George Wehby, a professor of health management policy.
Wehby worked on the study that looked at data from eight Iowa counties and seven Illinois bordering counties. The results reveal that starting on the day Illinois issued its order, "cases increased more quickly in Iowa and more slowly in Illinois."
The study said that if Iowa had a similar order, the state may have cut down on its spread by up to 30% in one month's time.
"Potentially 217 cases could have been prevented over that one month time," said Dr. Austin Baeth, a Des Moines physician.
Baeth has been advocating for a stay-at-home order in Iowa since the beginning. He said this study is concrete proof they do make a difference.
"The takeaway is that if there is a second wave, we need early, decisive action across the board to close all nonessential businesses," Baeth said.
KCCI asked Gov. Kim Reynolds about her thoughts on the study Wednesday.
"They are models based on assumptions," Reynolds said. "So we are looking at real-time data, and making our decisions based on what we are seeing that's happening in the state of Iowa."
But, Dr. Wehby said no assumptions here. The numbers are real and coincide with the same trend seen in studies done nationwide.
"Most of them suggest a role for stay-at-home orders above and beyond the other measures," Wehby said.